A new Red Dead game could be closer than Rockstar Games’ usual pace suggests, at least if you believe the bankers. Citi told clients this week that a fresh Red Dead title arriving in 2027 or 2028 “may not be unreasonable,” a striking line for a series whose last entry, Red Dead Redemption 2, came out in 2018. Unfortunately, it isn’t an official Rockstar statement. It’s an analyst’s inference based, loosely, on a Rockstar executive’s statement.
The reasoning is all about money. Citi’s note on Take-Two Interactive, Rockstar’s parent, rests on a comment from the recent Bloomberg feature on Grand Theft Auto VI. In it, Rockstar’s head of publishing Jennifer Kolbe denied that GTA 6 cost more than the $1.5 billion it took to build Dubai’s Burj Khalifa. Take-Two carried about $2.4 billion in capitalized software development costs at the end of its second quarter. Citi’s logic is simple. If GTA 6 came in under $1.5 billion, that leaves roughly $900 million of development already on the books, enough to support another major title. Hence a Red Dead in 2027 or 2028 that “may not be unreasonable.”
Based presumably on this assumption, the bank kept its Buy rating and $270 price target for TTWO.
| Release | Year | Gap from the previous one |
|---|---|---|
| Red Dead Redemption | 2010 | — |
| Grand Theft Auto V | 2013 | 3 years |
| Red Dead Redemption 2 | 2018 | 5 years |
| Grand Theft Auto VI | 2026 | 8 years |
The note is less of a prediction and more of a reassurance, meant to ease investor anxiety. Investors worry about a revenue drop after GTA 6 ships, since Rockstar’s blockbusters are years apart. Citi is telling them the money is there to follow up sooner than feared. However, Rockstar’s gaps between major releases have grown, not shrunk, which is what makes a 2027 or 2028 Red Dead look aggressive.
There’s also another problem. Rockstar does not make two games of this size at once, at least not lately. Look at the gaps. Red Dead Redemption in 2010, Grand Theft Auto V in 2013, Red Dead Redemption 2 in 2018 and GTA 6 in 2026. The spacing has stretched from three years to five to eight. A new Red Dead in 2027 or 2028 would mean a one- to two-year turnaround after the biggest, most demanding project the studio has ever made.
There is also a gap between accounting and development. Capitalized software costs on a balance sheet are money already spent across many projects, tools and technologies. They do not prove a specific game is close to finished, or even in full production. Citi is reading what Take-Two can afford.
None of this makes the idea impossible. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick and Rockstar staff have talked about new team structures, heavy hiring and technology, possibly including AI, meant to shorten development without cutting quality. The engine and tools built for GTA 6 could carry straight into the next project, the same way Grand Theft Auto: Vice City once reused Grand Theft Auto III‘s foundation to ship in about a year. A Wells Fargo analyst also floated a 2028 Red Dead before Citi did.
Ultimately, Rockstar has announced nothing about a new Red Dead, its development status or a window. All the information we have is from Roger Clark saying a third game will happen without him to John Marston’s actor teasing that major Red Dead news was coming, which, like the bank’s cost model, are not a sure thing.
It is encouraging, though. If Rockstar says the technology and resources are there to help them move on to the next project much faster and earlier than before, who knows?
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