How many units do you think R* will sell?

[BelleStarr]

GTA5 has shipped 85 million copies (reportedly) since it launched, but RDR1 shipped approximately 15 million units. RDR1 had such great reception and maybe the lower amount of units sold was due to it being the "first" in the series and first proper open world cowboy game. I hope that RDR2 will ship more because R* certainly deserve it for all their effort. 

How many units do you think it will sell upon release/in the first year, approximately?  

[Freddie Mercury]

$100  million units within the first year.

Launch day, anywhere between $10 million - $30 million units.

A bit far fetched, but with the success of GTA 5. I Wouldn't be surprised if R2 passes these.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Freddie Mercury

[Kean_1]

Just to clarify, we're talking units here and not dollars.

I think I saw one forecast that was for 15 million units IIRC for RDR2.  Personally, I think it will at least do double that.  .....30 million units if not more.  I think a good majority of GTAV fans will at least have an an interest in RDR2 and possibly pull the trigger if R* plays the ir cards right.  Who knows.   .......maybe 50 million or more.

[X S]

Admittedly, RDR is not as well renown as the GTA series, but from a gaming an entertainment perspective, everyone knows RDR and the reputation it developed with the first game.

I'm estimating it will sell well above corporate estimates, which I assume they're downplaying for obvious reasons.

[BelleStarr]

On 8/11/2018 at 5:03 PM, Freddie Mercury said:

$100  million units within the first year.

Launch day, anywhere between $10 million - $30 million units.

A bit far fetched, but with the success of GTA 5. I Wouldn't be surprised if R2 passes these.

I was referring to units, as in video games sold. I agree that there may be 10 million units sold on launch day, there's probably already a good portion already waiting on pre-order. GTA 5 has 85 millions units sold since it's release like 5/6 years ago, so I'd say in the next five years, it would've sold approx 40 million units. 

On 8/11/2018 at 9:10 PM, Kean_1 said:

Just to clarify, we're talking units here and not dollars.

I think I saw one forecast that was for 15 million units IIRC for RDR2.  Personally, I think it will at least do double that.  .....30 million units if not more.  I think a good majority of GTAV fans will at least have an an interest in RDR2 and possibly pull the trigger if R* plays the ir cards right.  Who knows.   .......maybe 50 million or more.

I think the marketing for RDR2 is a lot stronger this time round, I think they'll sell a lot more than the 18 million for RDR1, possibly more than double that.  

6 hours ago, X S said:

Admittedly, RDR is not as well renown as the GTA series, but from a gaming an entertainment perspective, everyone knows RDR and the reputation it developed with the first game.

I'm estimating it will sell well above corporate estimates, which I assume they're downplaying for obvious reasons.

I have seen a bunch of people who hadn't played RDR1 be interested in RDR2 due to the hype and it probably helps it's a prequel so newcomers can get a taste without really needing to play RDR1. I hope more people give it a go and it gets the attention and love it deserves!  

[Benjo]

I'd be interested to see how many copies of RDR1 have sold this year since the RDR2 hype train began. That would give a good indication of how many are new to the franchise.

[Freddie Mercury]

17 hours ago, BelleStarr said:

I was referring to units, as in video games sold. 

Thanks, I don't know why i added the $ signs. I guess its just my instincts ????.

Now that I think about it, 100 million units might be far fetched...

10 million launch day, 30 - 50 million within the 1st and 2nd year.

[BropolloCreed79]

15 minutes ago, Freddie Mercury said:

Thanks, I don't know why i added the $ signs. I guess its just my instincts ????.

Now that I think about it, 100 million units might be far fetched...

10 million launch day, 30 - 50 million within the 1st and 2nd year.

There's a difference though between what is actually sold to consumers and what the placement orders are.  Most sales reporting figures are round numbers because they reflect what the Purchase Order was from vendors to Rockstar.  This includes everything from big box retailers to mom-and-pop outfits.  

In terms of what we should expect, I think it's important to remember that RDR is a genre game, which is going to restrict it's market to a degree to niche enthusiasts and R* fans.  I don't expect the number of units to match pace with GTA V at the end of the first year, but it's going to depend on what the holiday release competition is.  Having a launch date at the end of October is genius really, because you have the hardcore fans snapping up copies immediately, and within a month, you have another boon during Black Friday events as people look to pick up the "hottest" games for their significant others or kids as the Holidays approach.

The online modes are going to have a big say in how large the user base for this game ends up being.  Take away GTA V's online modes, and I believe you could easily slash the final sales figures in half.  As important as the story and single player modes are, a robust online component enhances replay value in a way that is impossible to ignore.  When folks are being asked to spend more than $60 on a game, there HAS to be the perception of value or else the base won't be sustainable.

When you look at a company like Ubisoft, who had a string of launch failures (The Division, For Honor) affect later titles (Ghost Recon Wildlands), strictly based off the state of the game at launch, R*'s launch of RDR2 needs to be fully formed and robust  for both single and multiplayer modes, or else they'll be suffering a setback in advance of the biggest shopping day of the year.

[BelleStarr]

 The RDR1 debut trailer has less than a million views, despite people revisiting it in recent years after the RDR2 announcement, yet RDR2's trailer has 5 million views in 4 days, so I get a strong feeling it'll be a big hit.