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Red Dead Redemption 2 Won’t Beat GTA 5 According To Analyst


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Everyone is already assuming that Red Dead Redemption 2 will be a commercial success and they’ll almost certainly be correct.

No one is doubting that the game will make a splash, and has a shot at being the year’s best seller, but can it outpace the best selling entertainment product ever made? Unlikely.

Rockstar Games created an absolute beast of a game with Grand Theft Auto 5, which recently crossed the 90 million copies shipped milestone, and with $6 billion in earnings is the single most profitable game ever released.

Though, if one were to consider World of Warcraft and all its expansions as a gestalt, it would be a higher earner), giving Red Dead Redemption 2 a bar too high to jump.

Industry analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company discussed the wild success of GTA 5, and with Red Dead Redemption 2’s release coming up, it’s impossible not to address the question of whether Rockstar’s next title will eclipse it’s last.

Creutz was clear on this – it won’t, and it’s unlikely that any other Rockstar title that isn’t the next GTA would either, or any other game from other franchises, developers and publishers.

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GTA 5 is an outlier according to Creutz, and it will hold onto its record for a good long while.

Of course, he’s hardly denying that Red Dead Redemption 2 will be successful. The game can be a sweeping financial success, moving tens of millions of copies and raking vastly more money than its budget and still fall short of 90 million copies and $6 billion in revenue.

To say that Red Dead Redemption 2 won’t out-sell GTA 5 isn’t panning the former, just further putting the insane success of Rockstar’s last masterpiece into perspective. Then again, the idea that it won’t outsell GTA 5 isn’t a new one.

Of course, the comparisons between GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 are unfair in various ways.

While Grand Theft Auto has grown over a decade into becoming the quintessential mainstream gaming franchise with a vast array of games across many platforms, Red Dead isn’t as well known among non-gamer circles.

Everyone knows what GTA is, no matter how into video games they are, whereas Red Dead – with Redemption selling “just” 10 million copies – is a core gaming IP.

It’s one of the most discussed games on the internet, however the people discussing it are the people who would have bought it anyway. GTA 5 didn’t move 90 million copies because of the existing fans and gamers, otherwise all previous titles in the series would have similar numbers, but because Rockstar and Take-Two reached out to expand their audience. GTA 5’s arrival was heralded by billboards, liveries on trams, murals on the sides of buildings and a torrent of adverts.

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While Red Dead Redemption 2 is hotly discussed, almost all of that discussion amounts to “when will we get more info” or “when will we get a GameInformer cover story” and so on. All other major AAA releases, including Grand Theft Auto 5 which comes from an infinitely more famous and known franchise, doubled down on pre-release publicity.

Red Dead Redemption 2’s success isn’t in question – even the analyst saying it won’t hit GTA 5’s level of success brings attention to this, however the measure of that success is the question

Not to mention, every fan of the franchise is starving for information about the game, which is half a year away. Hopefully, that release date set for the 26th of October will really be the final one – Take-Two’s CEO seems to be confident in that at least.

The post Red Dead Redemption 2 Won’t Beat GTA 5 According To Analyst appeared first on RDR2.

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Very few who I have talked to thought it would. It is two different games. GTA has "modern" appeal with cars and what not which a lot of the younger Rockstar fans enjoy. I didn't know many 9 to 15 year olds who played RDR. Most people seemed to be 19 to 35 years old.

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15 minutes ago, D3x said:

Very few who I have talked to thought it would. It is two different games. GTA has "modern" appeal with cars and what not which a lot of the younger Rockstar fans enjoy. I didn't know many 9 to 15 year olds who played RDR. Most people seemed to be 19 to 35 years old.

Eh it depends on who you talk to and what you read. Plenty of RDR super fanboys say/think it will beat out GTA V in sales and overall in quality. 

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I think it will sell very well with the Rockstar Fans.   Myself I usually support games when I know how the companies treat their player

16 hours ago, D3x said:

Very few who I have talked to thought it would. It is two different games. GTA has "modern" appeal with cars and what not which a lot of the younger Rockstar fans enjoy. I didn't know many 9 to 15 year olds who played RDR. Most people seemed to be 19 to 35 years old.

Back in the day, it seemed like there was players from all age groups and it was usually the real young ones that shocked me the most.  They used to be able to make a sailor blush with some of the things they used to say.  I usually got laughing too hard I couldn't play the game.

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GTA V may be a Rockstar game but it has been "THEE" Rockstar game for many years. It is like we are comparing a season game of football to the superbowl. Yeah, RDR2 isn't going to do as good but that doesn't mean it will be a bad thing. They will make more than enough off the game. 

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No one is doubting that the game will make a splash, and has a shot at being the year’s best seller, but can it outpace the best selling entertainment product ever made? Unlikely.

Pretty much this. It's sold a bucket ton and then some copies so any game is going to have a hard time competing.

Also as fans of RDR do we really cares what an analyst says? I don't because it makes no difference to me if it does or doesn't beat GTA V or anything else out there.

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I was going to say what has already been mentioned here as well as not caring what some number cruncher says.

If I want to play a game and enjoy it, I really don't care how it sells in comparison to other games under the same gaming company.

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I don't understand the point of these analysts to begin with. They are like those movie critics. Sure, sometimes they are right and the movie sucks but they are usually so curved that I have enjoyed a lot of movies they claimed to be bad. Numbers don't me jack to me. 

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On 4/28/2018 at 7:26 PM, CrabApples said:

I don't understand the point of these analysts to begin with. They are like those movie critics. Sure, sometimes they are right and the movie sucks but they are usually so curved that I have enjoyed a lot of movies they claimed to be bad. Numbers don't me jack to me. 

I think this is more for a market outlook than anything. Like how much the game will earn and such in comparison. 

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On 4/19/2018 at 4:24 PM, YodaMan 3D said:

Back in the day, it seemed like there was players from all age groups and it was usually the real young ones that shocked me the most.  They used to be able to make a sailor blush with some of the things they used to say.  I usually got laughing too hard I couldn't play the game.

I remember being on a server with this group of what must have been 10 to 12-year-olds. Two of them were brothers, two were friends. They didn't have the voice change yet and they were talking about things with hookers that I refuse to type but I legitimately pulled my back laughing and my friend who was on with me at the time pissed himself. Not joking. I mean what parent in their right mind would let their kids play GTA let alone talk like that!? I didn't get any of that on RDR at all. 

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  • 1 month later...

I believe Red Dead 2 will be one hell of a game and on a platform on their on, I only bought gta5 to wait for red dead 2 or a red dead 1 for ps4, it's funny to compare these two when they brought gta5 to ps4 and xboxone if they'd done red dead like gta5 I think red dead would have passed them.

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